Sunday 1 November · 18:30 · 11th matchday
Elche – Valencia
Elche
17th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.21
Valencia
19th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Elche favourites for Elche – Valencia, at 46%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Elche win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Valencia win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Elche and 1.14 for Valencia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.52 for Elche, 1.14 for Valencia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Elche wins; above it, Valencia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Elche goals in rows, Valencia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Elche v Valencia?
Elche, at 46%. The full split is Elche 46%, draw 26%, Valencia 28%.
What is the most likely score in Elche v Valencia?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elche v Valencia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Elche and 1.14 for Valencia.
Will both teams score in Elche v Valencia?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Elche keep a clean sheet or Valencia fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
