Sunday 1 November · 21:00 · 11th matchday
Athletic Club – Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
9th · attack 1.02 · defence 0.89
Real Sociedad
6th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Athletic Club favourites for Athletic Club – Real Sociedad, at 48%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Athletic Club win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Real Sociedad win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.51 goals for Athletic Club and 1.02 for Real Sociedad, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.51 for Athletic Club, 1.02 for Real Sociedad.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Athletic Club wins; above it, Real Sociedad wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Athletic Club goals in rows, Real Sociedad goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Athletic Club v Real Sociedad?
Athletic Club, at 48%. The full split is Athletic Club 48%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 25%.
What is the most likely score in Athletic Club v Real Sociedad?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Athletic Club v Real Sociedad?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.51 for Athletic Club and 1.02 for Real Sociedad.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club v Real Sociedad?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet or Real Sociedad fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
