Tuesday 3 November · 21:00
Villarreal – Paris Saint Germain
Villarreal
14th · attack 1.44 · defence 1.01
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · attack 1.78 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain favourites for Villarreal – Paris Saint Germain, at 44%. Kick-off 3 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Villarreal win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Paris Saint Germain win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 8.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.66 goals for Villarreal and 1.90 for Paris Saint Germain, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 69%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.66 for Villarreal, 1.90 for Paris Saint Germain.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Villarreal wins; above it, Paris Saint Germain wins.
| Villarreal \ Paris Saint Germain | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Villarreal goals in rows, Paris Saint Germain goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain, at 44%. The full split is Villarreal 35%, draw 21%, Paris Saint Germain 44%.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain?
1–1, which comes up in 8.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 1.66 for Villarreal and 1.90 for Paris Saint Germain.
Will both teams score in Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain?
Both teams score in 69% of simulations. Villarreal keep a clean sheet or Paris Saint Germain fail to score in the remaining 31%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Thursday 22 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
