Champions League
Who goes where, and how likely
The top 8 of the league phase go straight to the round of 16; 9st to 24th go through the play-offs; below that, you are out. The first three columns describe that table and sum to 100 % per club. The rest describe the road afterwards, and each gives the probability of REACHING the round, not of winning it.
| # | Club | Pts | Top 8 | Play-offs | Out | Quarter-finals | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Bayern München | 17.5 | 79% | 21% | 0% | 73% | 33% | 20% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 17.5 | 75% | 24% | 0% | 71% | 32% | 20% |
| 3 |  Manchester City | 17.2 | 72% | 28% | 1% | 71% | 32% | 19% |
| 4 |  FC Barcelona | 16.7 | 68% | 31% | 1% | 64% | 21% | 11% |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 16.4 | 64% | 35% | 1% | 53% | 13% | 5% |
| 6 |  Inter | 14.4 | 42% | 54% | 4% | 46% | 11% | 5% |
| 7 |  Liverpool | 15.9 | 55% | 43% | 2% | 47% | 10% | 4% |
| 8 |  Borussia Dortmund | 15.2 | 47% | 50% | 3% | 41% | 7% | 3% |
| 9 |  Paris Saint Germain | 13.4 | 30% | 62% | 8% | 36% | 7% | 2% |
| 10 |  Roma | 13.3 | 26% | 65% | 8% | 34% | 6% | 2% |
| 11 |  Manchester United | 12.8 | 24% | 64% | 12% | 30% | 5% | 2% |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 13.4 | 27% | 65% | 8% | 29% | 4% | 1% |
| 13 |  Como | 13.5 | 28% | 63% | 9% | 27% | 3% | 1% |
| 14 |  Aston Villa | 14.3 | 36% | 58% | 6% | 28% | 3% | 1% |
| 15 |  Atlético de Madrid | 11.5 | 14% | 65% | 21% | 20% | 3% | 1% |
| 16 |  Porto | 12.2 | 16% | 68% | 16% | 22% | 3% | 1% |
| 17 |  Napoli | 10.9 | 8% | 65% | 26% | 15% | 2% | 1% |
| 18 |  VfB Stuttgart | 14.1 | 35% | 58% | 6% | 23% | 2% | 0% |
| 19 |  RB Leipzig | 10.2 | 6% | 59% | 35% | 11% | 1% | 0% |
| 20 |  Villarreal | 10.6 | 9% | 62% | 29% | 11% | 1% | 0% |
| 21 |  Real Betis | 11.7 | 12% | 69% | 19% | 11% | 1% | 0% |
| 22 |  Club Brugge | 8.8 | 3% | 46% | 51% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 23 |  Lens | 10.9 | 8% | 62% | 30% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| 24 |  LOSC Lille | 9.0 | 2% | 49% | 48% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 25 |  Bodø / Glimt | 8.8 | 2% | 42% | 56% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 26 |  PSV | 8.3 | 2% | 40% | 58% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 27 |  Shakhtar Donetsk~ | 9.1 | 3% | 49% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 28 |  AEK Athens~ | 8.2 | 1% | 34% | 65% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 29 |  Fenerbahçe | 9.1 | 3% | 47% | 49% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 30 |  Viking | 8.0 | 1% | 36% | 63% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 31 |  Feyenoord | 7.2 | 1% | 27% | 72% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 32 |  Galatasaray | 6.7 | 0% | 23% | 77% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 33 |  Slavia Praha~ | 6.0 | 0% | 17% | 83% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 34 |  LASK | 5.3 | 0% | 10% | 90% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 35 |  Sabah! | 3.6 | 0% | 3% | 96% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava~ | 3.6 | 0% | 3% | 97% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
50,000 simulated seasons. 18 of the 144 league-phase fixtures have been played; the rest are replayed from the real calendar. The table follows UEFA’s current criteria — points, goal difference, goals scored, away goals, wins, away wins, then opponents’ collective results. Head-to-head does not break ties: two teams level on points have usually not played each other.