Wednesday 4 November · 21:00
Slavia Praha – Arsenal
Slavia Praha
th · attack 1.23 · defence 1.07
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.33 · defence 0.66
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Slavia Praha – Arsenal, at 69%. Kick-off 4 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Slavia Praha win 11% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Arsenal win 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 14.4% of simulations.
We expect 0.66 goals for Slavia Praha and 2.00 for Arsenal, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 41%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.66 for Slavia Praha, 2.00 for Arsenal.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Slavia Praha wins; above it, Arsenal wins.
| Slavia Praha \ Arsenal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Slavia Praha goals in rows, Arsenal goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Slavia Praha v Arsenal?
Arsenal, at 69%. The full split is Slavia Praha 11%, draw 19%, Arsenal 69%.
What is the most likely score in Slavia Praha v Arsenal?
0–1, which comes up in 14.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Slavia Praha v Arsenal?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 0.66 for Slavia Praha and 2.00 for Arsenal.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha v Arsenal?
Both teams score in 41% of simulations. Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet or Arsenal fail to score in the remaining 59%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
