Tuesday 3 November · 18:45
Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
Shakhtar Donetsk
th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.05
Sporting CP
3rd · attack 2.13 · defence 0.69
Our model makes Sporting CP favourites for Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP, at 54%. Kick-off 3 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Shakhtar Donetsk win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Sporting CP win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.00 for Sporting CP, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.29 for Shakhtar Donetsk, 2.00 for Sporting CP.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Shakhtar Donetsk wins; above it, Sporting CP wins.
| Shakhtar Donetsk \ Sporting CP | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Shakhtar Donetsk goals in rows, Sporting CP goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP?
Sporting CP, at 54%. The full split is Shakhtar Donetsk 25%, draw 21%, Sporting CP 54%.
What is the most likely score in Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP?
1–2, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 2.00 for Sporting CP.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet or Sporting CP fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
