Tuesday 20 October · 18:45
Sabah – Borussia Dortmund
Sabah
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.45
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · attack 1.48 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for Sabah – Borussia Dortmund, at 75%. Kick-off 20 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Sabah win 11% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and Borussia Dortmund win 75%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 9.3% of simulations.
We expect 0.96 goals for Sabah and 2.73 for Borussia Dortmund, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.96 for Sabah, 2.73 for Borussia Dortmund.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sabah wins; above it, Borussia Dortmund wins.
| Sabah \ Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sabah goals in rows, Borussia Dortmund goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sabah v Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund, at 75%. The full split is Sabah 11%, draw 14%, Borussia Dortmund 75%.
What is the most likely score in Sabah v Borussia Dortmund?
0–2, which comes up in 9.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sabah v Borussia Dortmund?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 0.96 for Sabah and 2.73 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will both teams score in Sabah v Borussia Dortmund?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Sabah keep a clean sheet or Borussia Dortmund fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
