Wednesday 4 November · 21:00
RB Leipzig – Manchester City
RB Leipzig
7th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.07
Manchester City
1st · attack 1.59 · defence 0.83
Our model makes Manchester City favourites for RB Leipzig – Manchester City, at 54%. Kick-off 4 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, RB Leipzig win 24% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Manchester City win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.19 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.87 for Manchester City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.19 for RB Leipzig, 1.87 for Manchester City.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, RB Leipzig wins; above it, Manchester City wins.
| RB Leipzig \ Manchester City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
RB Leipzig goals in rows, Manchester City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in RB Leipzig v Manchester City?
Manchester City, at 54%. The full split is RB Leipzig 24%, draw 22%, Manchester City 54%.
What is the most likely score in RB Leipzig v Manchester City?
1–1, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in RB Leipzig v Manchester City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.19 for RB Leipzig and 1.87 for Manchester City.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig v Manchester City?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet or Manchester City fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
