Wednesday 4 November · 21:00
PSV – Club Brugge
PSV
3rd · attack 2.05 · defence 1.01
Club Brugge
2nd · attack 1.80 · defence 0.81
Our model makes PSV favourites for PSV – Club Brugge, at 40% — but only 0.4% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 4 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, PSV win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Club Brugge win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–2, in 7.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.09 goals for PSV and 2.08 for Club Brugge, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time and both teams scoring 76%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.09 for PSV, 2.08 for Club Brugge.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, PSV wins; above it, Club Brugge wins.
| PSV \ Club Brugge | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 |
PSV goals in rows, Club Brugge goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in PSV v Club Brugge?
PSV, at 40%. The full split is PSV 40%, draw 20%, Club Brugge 40%.
What is the most likely score in PSV v Club Brugge?
2–2, which comes up in 7.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in PSV v Club Brugge?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 92% of the time. Expected goals are 2.09 for PSV and 2.08 for Club Brugge.
Will both teams score in PSV v Club Brugge?
Both teams score in 76% of simulations. PSV keep a clean sheet or Club Brugge fail to score in the remaining 24%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
