Tuesday 3 November · 21:00
Manchester United – Roma
Manchester United
13th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.09
Roma
3rd · attack 1.45 · defence 0.73
Our model makes Manchester United favourites for Manchester United – Roma, at 41%. Kick-off 3 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Manchester United win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Roma win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.29 goals for Manchester United and 1.13 for Roma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.29 for Manchester United, 1.13 for Roma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Manchester United wins; above it, Roma wins.
| Manchester United \ Roma | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Manchester United goals in rows, Roma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Manchester United v Roma?
Manchester United, at 41%. The full split is Manchester United 41%, draw 27%, Roma 33%.
What is the most likely score in Manchester United v Roma?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v Roma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.29 for Manchester United and 1.13 for Roma.
Will both teams score in Manchester United v Roma?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Manchester United keep a clean sheet or Roma fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 20 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
