Champions LeagueWednesday, October 14 · 06:45 PM
LASK – Liverpool
LASK
3rd · attack 1.37 · defence 0.98
Liverpool
6th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.02
Our model makes Liverpool favourites for LASK – Liverpool, at 72%. Kick-off October 14, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, LASK win 11% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and Liverpool win 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 0.75 goals for LASK and 2.26 for Liverpool, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.75 for LASK, 2.26 for Liverpool.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, LASK wins; above it, Liverpool wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
LASK goals in rows, Liverpool goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in LASK v Liverpool?
Liverpool, at 72%. The full split is LASK 11%, draw 17%, Liverpool 72%.
What is the most likely score in LASK v Liverpool?
0–2, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in LASK v Liverpool?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 0.75 for LASK and 2.26 for Liverpool.
Will both teams score in LASK v Liverpool?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. LASK keep a clean sheet or Liverpool fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday, September 21. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.