Wednesday 4 November · 18:45
Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
Fenerbahçe
3rd · attack 1.81 · defence 0.88
Liverpool
5th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Liverpool favourites for Fenerbahçe – Liverpool, at 51%. Kick-off 4 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Fenerbahçe win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Liverpool win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.33 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.91 for Liverpool, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.33 for Fenerbahçe, 1.91 for Liverpool.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fenerbahçe wins; above it, Liverpool wins.
| Fenerbahçe \ Liverpool | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fenerbahçe goals in rows, Liverpool goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fenerbahçe v Liverpool?
Liverpool, at 51%. The full split is Fenerbahçe 27%, draw 22%, Liverpool 51%.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe v Liverpool?
1–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fenerbahçe v Liverpool?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.33 for Fenerbahçe and 1.91 for Liverpool.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe v Liverpool?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet or Liverpool fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 20 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
