Tuesday 3 November · 21:00
FC Barcelona – Aston Villa
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.16 · defence 0.79
Aston Villa
12th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.12
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for FC Barcelona – Aston Villa, at 65%. Kick-off 3 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, FC Barcelona win 65% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Aston Villa win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.44 goals for FC Barcelona and 1.17 for Aston Villa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.44 for FC Barcelona, 1.17 for Aston Villa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Barcelona wins; above it, Aston Villa wins.
| FC Barcelona \ Aston Villa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
FC Barcelona goals in rows, Aston Villa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Barcelona v Aston Villa?
FC Barcelona, at 65%. The full split is FC Barcelona 65%, draw 18%, Aston Villa 17%.
What is the most likely score in FC Barcelona v Aston Villa?
2–1, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Barcelona v Aston Villa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 2.44 for FC Barcelona and 1.17 for Aston Villa.
Will both teams score in FC Barcelona v Aston Villa?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. FC Barcelona keep a clean sheet or Aston Villa fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Thursday 22 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
