Wednesday 4 November · 21:00
Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · attack 1.45 · defence 0.89
Real Betis
4th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis, at 62%. Kick-off 4 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Borussia Dortmund win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Real Betis win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.18 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.11 for Real Betis, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 2.18 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.11 for Real Betis.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Borussia Dortmund wins; above it, Real Betis wins.
| Borussia Dortmund \ Real Betis | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Borussia Dortmund goals in rows, Real Betis goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis?
Borussia Dortmund, at 62%. The full split is Borussia Dortmund 62%, draw 19%, Real Betis 19%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis?
2–1, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 2.18 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.11 for Real Betis.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund v Real Betis?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet or Real Betis fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
