Tuesday 3 November · 21:00
Bodø / Glimt – LOSC Lille
Bodø / Glimt
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.79
LOSC Lille
4th · attack 1.16 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Bodø / Glimt favourites for Bodø / Glimt – LOSC Lille, at 40% — but only 4.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 3 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Bodø / Glimt win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and LOSC Lille win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.40 goals for Bodø / Glimt and 1.31 for LOSC Lille, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.40 for Bodø / Glimt, 1.31 for LOSC Lille.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bodø / Glimt wins; above it, LOSC Lille wins.
| Bodø / Glimt \ LOSC Lille | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Bodø / Glimt goals in rows, LOSC Lille goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bodø / Glimt v LOSC Lille?
Bodø / Glimt, at 40%. The full split is Bodø / Glimt 40%, draw 25%, LOSC Lille 36%.
What is the most likely score in Bodø / Glimt v LOSC Lille?
1–1, which comes up in 11.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bodø / Glimt v LOSC Lille?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.40 for Bodø / Glimt and 1.31 for LOSC Lille.
Will both teams score in Bodø / Glimt v LOSC Lille?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Bodø / Glimt keep a clean sheet or LOSC Lille fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
