Tuesday 3 November · 21:00
Atlético de Madrid – FC Bayern München
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.45 · defence 0.81
FC Bayern München
1st · attack 2.25 · defence 0.87
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for Atlético de Madrid – FC Bayern München, at 52%. Kick-off 3 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Atlético de Madrid win 28% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and FC Bayern München win 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 8.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.57 goals for Atlético de Madrid and 2.18 for FC Bayern München, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 72% of the time and both teams scoring 70%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.57 for Atlético de Madrid, 2.18 for FC Bayern München.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atlético de Madrid wins; above it, FC Bayern München wins.
| Atlético de Madrid \ FC Bayern München | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Atlético de Madrid goals in rows, FC Bayern München goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atlético de Madrid v FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München, at 52%. The full split is Atlético de Madrid 28%, draw 20%, FC Bayern München 52%.
What is the most likely score in Atlético de Madrid v FC Bayern München?
1–2, which comes up in 8.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atlético de Madrid v FC Bayern München?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 72% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 89% of the time. Expected goals are 1.57 for Atlético de Madrid and 2.18 for FC Bayern München.
Will both teams score in Atlético de Madrid v FC Bayern München?
Both teams score in 70% of simulations. Atlético de Madrid keep a clean sheet or FC Bayern München fail to score in the remaining 30%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Thursday 22 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
