Tuesday 24 November · 21:00
Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund
Arsenal
1st · attack 1.32 · defence 0.61
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · attack 1.43 · defence 0.86
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund, at 59%. Kick-off 24 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Arsenal win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Borussia Dortmund win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 16.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.58 goals for Arsenal and 0.70 for Borussia Dortmund, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 40%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.58 for Arsenal, 0.70 for Borussia Dortmund.
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Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arsenal wins; above it, Borussia Dortmund wins.
| Arsenal \ Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arsenal goals in rows, Borussia Dortmund goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund?
Arsenal, at 59%. The full split is Arsenal 59%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 17%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund?
1–0, which comes up in 16.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.58 for Arsenal and 0.70 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will both teams score in Arsenal v Borussia Dortmund?
Both teams score in 40% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet or Borussia Dortmund fail to score in the remaining 60%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
