Wednesday 4 November · 18:45
AEK Athens – Real Madrid
AEK Athens
th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.01
Real Madrid
3rd · attack 1.71 · defence 0.74
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for AEK Athens – Real Madrid, at 66%. Kick-off 4 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, AEK Athens win 15% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Real Madrid win 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 10.7% of simulations.
We expect 0.92 goals for AEK Athens and 2.16 for Real Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.92 for AEK Athens, 2.16 for Real Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AEK Athens wins; above it, Real Madrid wins.
| AEK Athens \ Real Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
AEK Athens goals in rows, Real Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AEK Athens v Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, at 66%. The full split is AEK Athens 15%, draw 19%, Real Madrid 66%.
What is the most likely score in AEK Athens v Real Madrid?
0–2, which comes up in 10.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AEK Athens v Real Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 0.92 for AEK Athens and 2.16 for Real Madrid.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens v Real Madrid?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. AEK Athens keep a clean sheet or Real Madrid fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
