Saturday 31 October · 15:30 · 8th matchday
Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
7th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.28
TSG Hoffenheim
17th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.39
Our model makes Werder Bremen favourites for Werder Bremen – TSG Hoffenheim, at 40%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Werder Bremen win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and TSG Hoffenheim win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.60 for TSG Hoffenheim, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.72 for Werder Bremen, 1.60 for TSG Hoffenheim.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Werder Bremen wins; above it, TSG Hoffenheim wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Werder Bremen goals in rows, TSG Hoffenheim goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim?
Werder Bremen, at 40%. The full split is Werder Bremen 40%, draw 24%, TSG Hoffenheim 35%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim?
1–1, which comes up in 10.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for Werder Bremen and 1.60 for TSG Hoffenheim.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen v TSG Hoffenheim?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet or TSG Hoffenheim fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
