Saturday 31 October · 15:30 · 8th matchday
Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig
Schalke 04
12th · attack 0.75 · defence 1.14
RB Leipzig
5th · attack 1.41 · defence 1.02
Our model makes RB Leipzig favourites for Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig, at 51%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Schalke 04 win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and RB Leipzig win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 0.97 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.60 for RB Leipzig, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.97 for Schalke 04, 1.60 for RB Leipzig.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Schalke 04 wins; above it, RB Leipzig wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Schalke 04 goals in rows, RB Leipzig goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig, at 51%. The full split is Schalke 04 22%, draw 27%, RB Leipzig 51%.
What is the most likely score in Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 0.97 for Schalke 04 and 1.60 for RB Leipzig.
Will both teams score in Schalke 04 v RB Leipzig?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Schalke 04 keep a clean sheet or RB Leipzig fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
