Sunday 1 November · 15:30 · 8th matchday
FC Union Berlin – FC Köln
FC Union Berlin
16th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.30
FC Köln
10th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.38
Our model makes FC Union Berlin favourites for FC Union Berlin – FC Köln, at 42%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Union Berlin win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and FC Köln win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for FC Union Berlin and 1.27 for FC Köln, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.52 for FC Union Berlin, 1.27 for FC Köln.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Union Berlin wins; above it, FC Köln wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
FC Union Berlin goals in rows, FC Köln goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Union Berlin v FC Köln?
FC Union Berlin, at 42%. The full split is FC Union Berlin 42%, draw 27%, FC Köln 31%.
What is the most likely score in FC Union Berlin v FC Köln?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Union Berlin v FC Köln?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for FC Union Berlin and 1.27 for FC Köln.
Will both teams score in FC Union Berlin v FC Köln?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. FC Union Berlin keep a clean sheet or FC Köln fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
