Saturday 31 October · 18:30 · 8th matchday
FC Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund
FC Bayern München
2nd · attack 2.23 · defence 0.88
Borussia Dortmund
1st · attack 1.48 · defence 0.90
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for FC Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund, at 64%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Bayern München win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Borussia Dortmund win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.54 goals for FC Bayern München and 1.30 for Borussia Dortmund, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time and both teams scoring 68%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.54 for FC Bayern München, 1.30 for Borussia Dortmund.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Bayern München wins; above it, Borussia Dortmund wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
FC Bayern München goals in rows, Borussia Dortmund goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund?
FC Bayern München, at 64%. The full split is FC Bayern München 64%, draw 19%, Borussia Dortmund 17%.
What is the most likely score in FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund?
2–1, which comes up in 9.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.54 for FC Bayern München and 1.30 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will both teams score in FC Bayern München v Borussia Dortmund?
Both teams score in 68% of simulations. FC Bayern München keep a clean sheet or Borussia Dortmund fail to score in the remaining 32%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
