Saturday 31 October · 15:30 · 8th matchday
FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg
FC Augsburg
6th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.24
SC Freiburg
3rd · attack 1.14 · defence 1.18
Our model makes FC Augsburg favourites for FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg, at 38% — but only 3.5% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Augsburg win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and SC Freiburg win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.50 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.42 for SC Freiburg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.50 for FC Augsburg, 1.42 for SC Freiburg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Augsburg wins; above it, SC Freiburg wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Augsburg goals in rows, SC Freiburg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg?
FC Augsburg, at 38%. The full split is FC Augsburg 38%, draw 26%, SC Freiburg 35%.
What is the most likely score in FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.50 for FC Augsburg and 1.42 for SC Freiburg.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet or SC Freiburg fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
