Friday 30 October · 20:30 · 8th matchday
Elversberg – FSV Mainz 05
Elversberg
8th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.32
FSV Mainz 05
7th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.14
Our model makes Elversberg favourites for Elversberg – FSV Mainz 05, at 47%. Kick-off 30 October 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, Elversberg win 47% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and FSV Mainz 05 win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.81 goals for Elversberg and 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.81 for Elversberg, 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Elversberg wins; above it, FSV Mainz 05 wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Elversberg goals in rows, FSV Mainz 05 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05?
Elversberg, at 47%. The full split is Elversberg 47%, draw 25%, FSV Mainz 05 29%.
What is the most likely score in Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.81 for Elversberg and 1.39 for FSV Mainz 05.
Will both teams score in Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. Elversberg keep a clean sheet or FSV Mainz 05 fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
