Sunday 1 November · 17:30 · 8th matchday
Eintracht Frankfurt – Hamburger SV
Eintracht Frankfurt
14th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.38
Hamburger SV
12th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.35
Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt favourites for Eintracht Frankfurt – Hamburger SV, at 59%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, Eintracht Frankfurt win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Hamburger SV win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.16 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.20 for Hamburger SV, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.16 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.20 for Hamburger SV.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Eintracht Frankfurt wins; above it, Hamburger SV wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Eintracht Frankfurt goals in rows, Hamburger SV goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV?
Eintracht Frankfurt, at 59%. The full split is Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, draw 22%, Hamburger SV 20%.
What is the most likely score in Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV?
2–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.16 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.20 for Hamburger SV.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet or Hamburger SV fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
