Saturday 31 October · 15:30 · 8th matchday
Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.37
Paderborn
15th · attack 0.63 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach favourites for Borussia Mönchengladbach – Paderborn, at 49%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Borussia Mönchengladbach win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Paderborn win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.41 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.87 for Paderborn, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.41 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0.87 for Paderborn.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Borussia Mönchengladbach wins; above it, Paderborn wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals in rows, Paderborn goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Paderborn?
Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 49%. The full split is Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%, draw 29%, Paderborn 22%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Paderborn?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Paderborn?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.41 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.87 for Paderborn.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Paderborn?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet or Paderborn fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
