Saturday 31 October · 15:30 · 8th matchday
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4th · attack 1.53 · defence 1.01
VfB Stuttgart
10th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.11
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen favourites for Bayer 04 Leverkusen – VfB Stuttgart, at 54%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and VfB Stuttgart win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.15 goals for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.41 for VfB Stuttgart, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.15 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 1.41 for VfB Stuttgart.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins; above it, VfB Stuttgart wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in rows, VfB Stuttgart goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 54%. The full split is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 54%, draw 22%, VfB Stuttgart 24%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart?
1–1, which comes up in 9.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 2.15 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 1.41 for VfB Stuttgart.
Will both teams score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfB Stuttgart?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep a clean sheet or VfB Stuttgart fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
