Saturday 31 October · 18:00 · 10th matchday
Udinese – Roma
Udinese
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.19
Roma
2nd · attack 1.51 · defence 0.77
Our model makes Roma favourites for Udinese – Roma, at 58%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Udinese win 19% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Roma win 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 0.91 goals for Udinese and 1.80 for Roma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.91 for Udinese, 1.80 for Roma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Udinese wins; above it, Roma wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Udinese goals in rows, Roma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Udinese v Roma?
Roma, at 58%. The full split is Udinese 19%, draw 23%, Roma 58%.
What is the most likely score in Udinese v Roma?
0–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Udinese v Roma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 0.91 for Udinese and 1.80 for Roma.
Will both teams score in Udinese v Roma?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Udinese keep a clean sheet or Roma fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
