Sunday 1 November · 18:00 · 10th matchday
Lecce – Genoa
Lecce
12th · attack 0.73 · defence 1.23
Genoa
17th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Genoa favourites for Lecce – Genoa, at 39%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Lecce win 30% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Genoa win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 0.97 goals for Lecce and 1.14 for Genoa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.97 for Lecce, 1.14 for Genoa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lecce wins; above it, Genoa wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lecce goals in rows, Genoa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lecce v Genoa?
Genoa, at 39%. The full split is Lecce 30%, draw 30%, Genoa 39%.
What is the most likely score in Lecce v Genoa?
0–1, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Genoa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 62% of the time. Expected goals are 0.97 for Lecce and 1.14 for Genoa.
Will both teams score in Lecce v Genoa?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Lecce keep a clean sheet or Genoa fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
