Sunday 1 November · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Lazio – Cagliari
Lazio
2nd · attack 1.10 · defence 0.92
Cagliari
4th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Lazio favourites for Lazio – Cagliari, at 48%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Lazio win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Cagliari win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.34 goals for Lazio and 0.87 for Cagliari, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.34 for Lazio, 0.87 for Cagliari.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lazio wins; above it, Cagliari wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lazio goals in rows, Cagliari goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lazio v Cagliari?
Lazio, at 48%. The full split is Lazio 48%, draw 28%, Cagliari 24%.
What is the most likely score in Lazio v Cagliari?
1–0, which comes up in 14.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lazio v Cagliari?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.34 for Lazio and 0.87 for Cagliari.
Will both teams score in Lazio v Cagliari?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Lazio keep a clean sheet or Cagliari fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
