Sunday 1 November · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Juventus – Napoli
Juventus
6th · attack 1.31 · defence 0.81
Napoli
8th · attack 1.32 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Juventus favourites for Juventus – Napoli, at 39%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Juventus win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Napoli win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.21 goals for Juventus and 1.08 for Napoli, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.21 for Juventus, 1.08 for Napoli.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Juventus wins; above it, Napoli wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Juventus goals in rows, Napoli goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Juventus v Napoli?
Juventus, at 39%. The full split is Juventus 39%, draw 29%, Napoli 32%.
What is the most likely score in Juventus v Napoli?
1–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Napoli?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.21 for Juventus and 1.08 for Napoli.
Will both teams score in Juventus v Napoli?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Juventus keep a clean sheet or Napoli fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
