Sunday 1 November · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Frosinone – Torino
Frosinone
9th · attack 1.14 · defence 1.11
Torino
15th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Frosinone favourites for Frosinone – Torino, at 48%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Frosinone win 48% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Torino win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.58 goals for Frosinone and 1.11 for Torino, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.58 for Frosinone, 1.11 for Torino.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Frosinone wins; above it, Torino wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Frosinone goals in rows, Torino goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Frosinone v Torino?
Frosinone, at 48%. The full split is Frosinone 48%, draw 25%, Torino 27%.
What is the most likely score in Frosinone v Torino?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frosinone v Torino?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.58 for Frosinone and 1.11 for Torino.
Will both teams score in Frosinone v Torino?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Frosinone keep a clean sheet or Torino fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
