Sunday 1 November · 12:30 · 10th matchday
Como – Venezia
Como
7th · attack 1.38 · defence 0.82
Venezia
20th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.58
Our model makes Como favourites for Como – Venezia, at 77%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 12:30.
Across the full score distribution, Como win 77% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Venezia win 8%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 13.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.46 goals for Como and 0.64 for Venezia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.46 for Como, 0.64 for Venezia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Como wins; above it, Venezia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 11 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Como goals in rows, Venezia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Como v Venezia?
Como, at 77%. The full split is Como 77%, draw 15%, Venezia 8%.
What is the most likely score in Como v Venezia?
2–0, which comes up in 13.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como v Venezia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.46 for Como and 0.64 for Venezia.
Will both teams score in Como v Venezia?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Como keep a clean sheet or Venezia fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
