Saturday 31 October · 15:00 · 10th matchday
Bologna – Monza
Bologna
19th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.05
Monza
15th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.57
Our model makes Bologna favourites for Bologna – Monza, at 59%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Bologna win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Monza win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 10.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.91 goals for Bologna and 0.99 for Monza, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.91 for Bologna, 0.99 for Monza.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bologna wins; above it, Monza wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Bologna goals in rows, Monza goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bologna v Monza?
Bologna, at 59%. The full split is Bologna 59%, draw 22%, Monza 19%.
What is the most likely score in Bologna v Monza?
1–0, which comes up in 10.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bologna v Monza?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.91 for Bologna and 0.99 for Monza.
Will both teams score in Bologna v Monza?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Bologna keep a clean sheet or Monza fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
