Monday 2 November · 20:45 · 10th matchday
Atalanta – Parma
Atalanta
10th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.90
Parma
18th · attack 0.74 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Atalanta favourites for Atalanta – Parma, at 60%. Kick-off 2 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Atalanta win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Parma win 15%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 16.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.61 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Parma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 39%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.61 for Atalanta, 0.67 for Parma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atalanta wins; above it, Parma wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Atalanta goals in rows, Parma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atalanta v Parma?
Atalanta, at 60%. The full split is Atalanta 60%, draw 25%, Parma 15%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta v Parma?
1–0, which comes up in 16.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Parma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.61 for Atalanta and 0.67 for Parma.
Will both teams score in Atalanta v Parma?
Both teams score in 39% of simulations. Atalanta keep a clean sheet or Parma fail to score in the remaining 61%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 13 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
