Saturday 31 October · 20:45 · 10th matchday
AC Milan – Inter
AC Milan
5th · attack 1.31 · defence 0.89
Inter
1st · attack 1.99 · defence 0.89
Our model makes Inter favourites for AC Milan – Inter, at 49%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, AC Milan win 28% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Inter win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.30 goals for AC Milan and 1.78 for Inter, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.30 for AC Milan, 1.78 for Inter.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AC Milan wins; above it, Inter wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
AC Milan goals in rows, Inter goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AC Milan v Inter?
Inter, at 49%. The full split is AC Milan 28%, draw 23%, Inter 49%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan v Inter?
1–1, which comes up in 10.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AC Milan v Inter?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.30 for AC Milan and 1.78 for Inter.
Will both teams score in AC Milan v Inter?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. AC Milan keep a clean sheet or Inter fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
