Primeira LigaFriday, October 23 · 09:45 PM · 9th matchday
Vitória Guimarães – Marítimo
Vitória Guimarães
14th · attack 1.08 · defence 0.98
Marítimo
11th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Vitória Guimarães favourites for Vitória Guimarães – Marítimo, at 55%. Kick-off October 23, 2026, 09:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Vitória Guimarães win 55% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Marítimo win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.60 goals for Vitória Guimarães and 0.88 for Marítimo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.60 for Vitória Guimarães, 0.88 for Marítimo.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Vitória Guimarães wins; above it, Marítimo wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Vitória Guimarães goals in rows, Marítimo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Vitória Guimarães v Marítimo?
Vitória Guimarães, at 55%. The full split is Vitória Guimarães 55%, draw 24%, Marítimo 21%.
What is the most likely score in Vitória Guimarães v Marítimo?
1–0, which comes up in 13.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vitória Guimarães v Marítimo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.60 for Vitória Guimarães and 0.88 for Marítimo.
Will both teams score in Vitória Guimarães v Marítimo?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Vitória Guimarães keep a clean sheet or Marítimo fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.