Primeira LigaSunday, October 25 · 09:30 PM · 9th matchday
Sporting CP – Academico Viseu
Sporting CP
3rd · attack 2.12 · defence 0.69
Academico Viseu
7th · attack 1.14 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Sporting CP favourites for Sporting CP – Academico Viseu, at 76%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 09:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sporting CP win 76% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Academico Viseu win 10%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.54 goals for Sporting CP and 0.79 for Academico Viseu, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.54 for Sporting CP, 0.79 for Academico Viseu.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sporting CP wins; above it, Academico Viseu wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Sporting CP goals in rows, Academico Viseu goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sporting CP v Academico Viseu?
Sporting CP, at 76%. The full split is Sporting CP 76%, draw 15%, Academico Viseu 10%.
What is the most likely score in Sporting CP v Academico Viseu?
2–0, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sporting CP v Academico Viseu?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 2.54 for Sporting CP and 0.79 for Academico Viseu.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP v Academico Viseu?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Sporting CP keep a clean sheet or Academico Viseu fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.