Primeira LigaMonday, October 26 · 07:45 PM · 9th matchday
Santa Clara – Benfica
Santa Clara
4th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.95
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.96 · defence 0.66
Our model makes Benfica favourites for Santa Clara – Benfica, at 65%. Kick-off October 26, 2026, 07:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Santa Clara win 14% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Benfica win 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 14.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.73 goals for Santa Clara and 1.87 for Benfica, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.73 for Santa Clara, 1.87 for Benfica.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Santa Clara wins; above it, Benfica wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Santa Clara goals in rows, Benfica goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Santa Clara v Benfica?
Benfica, at 65%. The full split is Santa Clara 14%, draw 21%, Benfica 65%.
What is the most likely score in Santa Clara v Benfica?
0–1, which comes up in 14.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santa Clara v Benfica?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 0.73 for Santa Clara and 1.87 for Benfica.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara v Benfica?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Santa Clara keep a clean sheet or Benfica fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.