Primeira LigaSunday, October 25 · 07:00 PM · 9th matchday
Rio Ave – Famalicão
Rio Ave
16th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.18
Famalicão
13th · attack 1.07 · defence 0.94
Our model makes Famalicão favourites for Rio Ave – Famalicão, at 42%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 07:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Rio Ave win 31% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Famalicão win 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.04 goals for Rio Ave and 1.26 for Famalicão, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.04 for Rio Ave, 1.26 for Famalicão.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rio Ave wins; above it, Famalicão wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rio Ave goals in rows, Famalicão goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rio Ave v Famalicão?
Famalicão, at 42%. The full split is Rio Ave 31%, draw 27%, Famalicão 42%.
What is the most likely score in Rio Ave v Famalicão?
0–1, which comes up in 13.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rio Ave v Famalicão?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.04 for Rio Ave and 1.26 for Famalicão.
Will both teams score in Rio Ave v Famalicão?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Rio Ave keep a clean sheet or Famalicão fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.