Primeira LigaSunday, October 25 · 07:00 PM · 9th matchday
Nacional – Sporting Braga
Nacional
15th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.19
Sporting Braga
6th · attack 1.52 · defence 0.84
Our model makes Sporting Braga favourites for Nacional – Sporting Braga, at 59%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 07:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Nacional win 19% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Sporting Braga win 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 0.90 goals for Nacional and 1.81 for Sporting Braga, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.90 for Nacional, 1.81 for Sporting Braga.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Nacional wins; above it, Sporting Braga wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Nacional goals in rows, Sporting Braga goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Nacional v Sporting Braga?
Sporting Braga, at 59%. The full split is Nacional 19%, draw 22%, Sporting Braga 59%.
What is the most likely score in Nacional v Sporting Braga?
0–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nacional v Sporting Braga?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 0.90 for Nacional and 1.81 for Sporting Braga.
Will both teams score in Nacional v Sporting Braga?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Nacional keep a clean sheet or Sporting Braga fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.