Primeira LigaFriday, October 9 · 07:45 PM · 8th matchday
Moreirense – Gil Vicente
Moreirense
12th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.12
Gil Vicente
9th · attack 1.00 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Moreirense favourites for Moreirense – Gil Vicente, at 37% — but only 2.5% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 9, 2026, 07:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Moreirense win 37% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Gil Vicente win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.17 goals for Moreirense and 1.12 for Gil Vicente, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.17 for Moreirense, 1.12 for Gil Vicente.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Moreirense wins; above it, Gil Vicente wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Moreirense goals in rows, Gil Vicente goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Moreirense v Gil Vicente?
Moreirense, at 37%. The full split is Moreirense 37%, draw 28%, Gil Vicente 35%.
What is the most likely score in Moreirense v Gil Vicente?
1–1, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Moreirense v Gil Vicente?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.17 for Moreirense and 1.12 for Gil Vicente.
Will both teams score in Moreirense v Gil Vicente?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Moreirense keep a clean sheet or Gil Vicente fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.