Primeira LigaSaturday, October 24 · 09:30 PM · 9th matchday
Gil Vicente – Porto
Gil Vicente
9th · attack 1.00 · defence 0.99
Porto
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.59
Our model makes Porto favourites for Gil Vicente – Porto, at 62%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 09:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Gil Vicente win 16% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Porto win 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 15.5% of simulations.
We expect 0.71 goals for Gil Vicente and 1.71 for Porto, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 41%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.71 for Gil Vicente, 1.71 for Porto.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Gil Vicente wins; above it, Porto wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Gil Vicente goals in rows, Porto goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Gil Vicente v Porto?
Porto, at 62%. The full split is Gil Vicente 16%, draw 23%, Porto 62%.
What is the most likely score in Gil Vicente v Porto?
0–1, which comes up in 15.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Gil Vicente v Porto?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 0.71 for Gil Vicente and 1.71 for Porto.
Will both teams score in Gil Vicente v Porto?
Both teams score in 41% of simulations. Gil Vicente keep a clean sheet or Porto fail to score in the remaining 59%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.