Primeira LigaMonday, October 12 · 09:15 PM · 8th matchday
Famalicão – Alverca
Famalicão
13th · attack 1.07 · defence 0.94
Alverca
10th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.16
Our model makes Famalicão favourites for Famalicão – Alverca, at 52%. Kick-off October 12, 2026, 09:15 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Famalicão win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Alverca win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.51 goals for Famalicão and 0.89 for Alverca, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.51 for Famalicão, 0.89 for Alverca.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Famalicão wins; above it, Alverca wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Famalicão goals in rows, Alverca goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Famalicão v Alverca?
Famalicão, at 52%. The full split is Famalicão 52%, draw 25%, Alverca 23%.
What is the most likely score in Famalicão v Alverca?
1–0, which comes up in 14.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Famalicão v Alverca?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.51 for Famalicão and 0.89 for Alverca.
Will both teams score in Famalicão v Alverca?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Famalicão keep a clean sheet or Alverca fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.