Primeira LigaSaturday, October 24 · 04:30 PM · 9th matchday
Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia
Estrela Amadora
8th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.25
Casa Pia
17th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.14
Our model makes Estrela Amadora favourites for Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia, at 41%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 04:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Estrela Amadora win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Casa Pia win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.24 goals for Estrela Amadora and 1.07 for Casa Pia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.24 for Estrela Amadora, 1.07 for Casa Pia.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Estrela Amadora wins; above it, Casa Pia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Estrela Amadora goals in rows, Casa Pia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia?
Estrela Amadora, at 41%. The full split is Estrela Amadora 41%, draw 27%, Casa Pia 32%.
What is the most likely score in Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia?
1–0, which comes up in 12.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.24 for Estrela Amadora and 1.07 for Casa Pia.
Will both teams score in Estrela Amadora v Casa Pia?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Estrela Amadora keep a clean sheet or Casa Pia fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.