Primeira LigaSunday, October 25 · 04:30 PM · 9th matchday
Estoril – Moreirense
Estoril
18th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.23
Moreirense
12th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Estoril favourites for Estoril – Moreirense, at 46%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 04:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Estoril win 46% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Moreirense win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.55 goals for Estoril and 1.20 for Moreirense, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.55 for Estoril, 1.20 for Moreirense.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Estoril wins; above it, Moreirense wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Estoril goals in rows, Moreirense goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Estoril v Moreirense?
Estoril, at 46%. The full split is Estoril 46%, draw 24%, Moreirense 30%.
What is the most likely score in Estoril v Moreirense?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estoril v Moreirense?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.55 for Estoril and 1.20 for Moreirense.
Will both teams score in Estoril v Moreirense?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Estoril keep a clean sheet or Moreirense fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.