Primeira LigaSaturday, October 10 · 04:30 PM · 8th matchday
Casa Pia – Santa Clara
Casa Pia
17th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.14
Santa Clara
4th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.95
Our model makes Santa Clara favourites for Casa Pia – Santa Clara, at 37% — but only 3.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 04:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Casa Pia win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Santa Clara win 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 14.3% of simulations.
We expect 0.98 goals for Casa Pia and 1.04 for Santa Clara, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 33% of the time and both teams scoring 40%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.98 for Casa Pia, 1.04 for Santa Clara.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Casa Pia wins; above it, Santa Clara wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Casa Pia goals in rows, Santa Clara goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Casa Pia v Santa Clara?
Santa Clara, at 37%. The full split is Casa Pia 34%, draw 30%, Santa Clara 37%.
What is the most likely score in Casa Pia v Santa Clara?
0–1, which comes up in 14.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Casa Pia v Santa Clara?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 33% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 59% of the time. Expected goals are 0.98 for Casa Pia and 1.04 for Santa Clara.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia v Santa Clara?
Both teams score in 40% of simulations. Casa Pia keep a clean sheet or Santa Clara fail to score in the remaining 60%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.