Primeira LigaSunday, October 11 · 07:00 PM · 8th matchday
Benfica – Vitória Guimarães
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.96 · defence 0.66
Vitória Guimarães
14th · attack 1.08 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Benfica favourites for Benfica – Vitória Guimarães, at 74%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 07:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Benfica win 74% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and Vitória Guimarães win 10%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.33 goals for Benfica and 0.71 for Vitória Guimarães, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.33 for Benfica, 0.71 for Vitória Guimarães.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Benfica wins; above it, Vitória Guimarães wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Benfica goals in rows, Vitória Guimarães goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Benfica v Vitória Guimarães?
Benfica, at 74%. The full split is Benfica 74%, draw 16%, Vitória Guimarães 10%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica v Vitória Guimarães?
2–0, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Benfica v Vitória Guimarães?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 2.33 for Benfica and 0.71 for Vitória Guimarães.
Will both teams score in Benfica v Vitória Guimarães?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Benfica keep a clean sheet or Vitória Guimarães fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.