Primeira LigaSunday, October 11 · 09:30 PM · 8th matchday
Arouca – Estrela Amadora
Arouca
5th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
Estrela Amadora
8th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Arouca favourites for Arouca – Estrela Amadora, at 51%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 09:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Arouca win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Estrela Amadora win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.65 goals for Arouca and 1.07 for Estrela Amadora, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.65 for Arouca, 1.07 for Estrela Amadora.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arouca wins; above it, Estrela Amadora wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arouca goals in rows, Estrela Amadora goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arouca v Estrela Amadora?
Arouca, at 51%. The full split is Arouca 51%, draw 24%, Estrela Amadora 25%.
What is the most likely score in Arouca v Estrela Amadora?
1–0, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arouca v Estrela Amadora?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.65 for Arouca and 1.07 for Estrela Amadora.
Will both teams score in Arouca v Estrela Amadora?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Arouca keep a clean sheet or Estrela Amadora fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.