Primeira LigaSaturday, October 24 · 07:00 PM · 9th matchday
Alverca – Arouca
Alverca
10th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.16
Arouca
5th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Alverca favourites for Alverca – Arouca, at 39% — but only 4.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 07:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Alverca win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Arouca win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.36 goals for Alverca and 1.27 for Arouca, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.36 for Alverca, 1.27 for Arouca.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Alverca wins; above it, Arouca wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Alverca goals in rows, Arouca goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Alverca v Arouca?
Alverca, at 39%. The full split is Alverca 39%, draw 25%, Arouca 35%.
What is the most likely score in Alverca v Arouca?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Alverca v Arouca?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.36 for Alverca and 1.27 for Arouca.
Will both teams score in Alverca v Arouca?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Alverca keep a clean sheet or Arouca fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.